Information from Ian Wingrove <Ian.Wingrove@london.gov.uk>

It was suggested that we circulate this briefing prepared for Darren Johnson. The calculation is based upon the figures supplied by TfL. We have repeatedly requested that TfL provide us with this calculation themselves (since July) but it has not been forth coming. We can also provide a calculation based upon the cycle trip figures, if requested.

It is accepted that cycling is safer than it was in 2000

The Mayor’s claims that cycling is getting safer are based upon comparing ‘fatalities’ – the number of people dying on the roads has been in decline for years because of improvements to medical intervention, as well as safety improvement.

TfL (in their annual fact sheet) do not regard the use of cycling fatalities as ‘statistically significant’

“Pedal cyclist casualties increased by 12%. Fatalities increased from 10 in 2010, the second lowest number on record, to 16 (+60%). This numeric increase was not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Serious injuries increased by 21% and slight injuries increased by 11%, both of which were statistically significant.“

Three stage rough calculation of the pan London KSI ratio:

TfL figures http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/corporate/travel-in-london-report-5.pdf

2008 490,000 cycle stages per day
2011 570,000 cycle stages per day

TfL figures http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/23293.aspx
2008 Killed & seriously injured 445
2011 killed & seriously injured 571

Rough calculation of cycling ratio
2008  1 KSI per 401,910 cycle stages
2011  1 KSI per 364,361 cycle stages
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